On or about July 23rd or 24th, a 60 game ‘season’ will begin.
How far it will go, what it will be like (compared to an 162 games season), whether it will shortened by the virus, or is it possible there will be fans in the stadiums before the season ends?
No one knows the answers to those and a number of other questions about MLB in 2020.
But we do know some things:
Look at the two articles below, the first outlines the main the guidelines and ‘rules’ under which the teams will compete. The second is an attempt to calculate if a 60 game season will need asterisks in the baseball history books. (Ed. Comment: Of course it will, but for those of you who like to get into the ‘weeds’ of baseball, it’s an interesting look at how 60 games can be compared to 162 games.)
Whether or not you read either of these articles, I need your suggestions for a three question MillersTime Baseball Contest for 2020.
And I need them quickly.
By Sunday, July 5.
That way I can get the Contests out to everyone in time for you to submit your award winning answers prior to the first game.
So, see what you can come up with in regard to this “season like no other.”
Send them to me at Samesty84@gmail.com., and if one of your questions is chosen, you will be ‘entitled’ to a MillersTime Baseball Contest Winner T-Shirt.* (You can also make suggestions for the prizes for this year’s Contests.)
Deadline for Potential Questions: Sunday, July 5
Contests Will Be Announced by Friday, July 10
Submission for Your ‘Winning’ Answers Due by July 23rd.
*Alternative T-Shirt if one of your questions is selected fo the 2020 Contest.
I don’t want to try to summarize Joe Posnaski’s blog this morning, other than to say it’s definitely worth the few minutes it will take you to read it. Don’t get lost on the details of his solution. Just focus on how he is thinking of a whole new way to imagine a 2020 baseball season.
This morning’s baseball ‘news’ is that both sides remain deadlocked after MLB rejects the lastest Players Association proposal. I suspect (hope?) there will be some last minute agreement between the players and owners. Likely an 80+ game season without fans, at least initially, in three realigned divisions with an expanded playoff scenario, with many built in safety measures , re COVID-19, and with a pay scale that won’t satisfy either side but will allow the game to continue.
My two cents, without getting into the weeds of the negotiations – who’s right, who’s wrong – is that both sides need to step back, take a longer view of where the country is now, where baseball may be headed, and come together to preserve some semblance of the game for now.
As is so often the case, Joe Posnanski, one of my favorite baseball writers, hits on what is essential in his blog post yesterday: The Future of Baseball.
Joe’s wordy, but knows and loves baseball and most often seems to get things right. This article is not another lecture about baseball as a dying sport, but really a plea for understanding what is at stake.
In part, he writes:
“What you see, I believe, is a shortsightedness, a submission to the moment, a perpetual fight over the game’s riches. This last part, in particular, has played out over the last few weeks while a global pandemic rages on, and do you think most people care if it’s the owners or the players who are at fault? No. Most people just see that people can’t come together, even now, for this game that they’re all supposed to love.
“So who can blame someone for asking: If that’s how they treat this game, why in the hell should I care?
He writes about Dayton Moore, a friend with whom he disagrees about many things, but about baseball, Joe thinks Moore gets it right:
“THIS is how baseball should be thinking about everything, not just now but always: How can we celebrate baseball? How can we reach new audiences? How can we bring live, exciting baseball to more communities (and for less money)? How can we show young people how much fun the game is to play and watch and follow? How can we get into communities? How can we make a difference? How can we draw more young people?
“There aren’t easy answers. But there are no answers if you don’t take the time to ask the questions. If I was commissioner, I would put Dayton Moore in charge of the game’s future.”
On National Nurses Day, May 6, 2020, Fenway Park’s head groundskeeper, Dave Mellor, sent a message of support from the Red Sox to nurses with a ‘socially distanced’ Sox emblem. Photo courtesy of Boston Red Sox
With news yesterday and probably more details later today, it appears there maybe a baseball season consisting of 82 games starting in July. There are details remaining to work out, including the two biggest issues of finances for both the MLB owners and the players as well as safety concerns for the players and those who will participate in the shortened season.
At least at the beginning, there will be no fans present.
Baseball without fans?
Seriously?
Yes.
It’s happening in Korea now, since their season opened about a week ago, without fans in the stadium. (It also happened once previously, for one game in Baltimore in 2015, for a game between the Orioles and the White Sox.)
And while it’s too early to really evaluate how significant the absence of spectators in the stadium is affecting the game in Korea, it’s clear that things are not the same.
Time will tell if this substitute for the real thing is safe, is satisfying, is something that helps everyone in these troubled times.
All of this, the absence of one of my life’s obsessions, baseball, and the role of sports in the lives of people everywhere, but in this instance particularly in our country is ‘explored in the two links below: one a 4:29 minute YouTube video of President Bush throwing out the opening pitch of game three in the World Series at Yankee Stadium on Oct. 30th, following 9/11 (hat/tip to Jere Smith for the update on this) and one a recent article in the NYTimes entitled The Healing Power of Baseball by Franklin Zimmerman, M.D. (hat/tip to Harry Siler for alerting me to this article).
While baseball fans wait to see what will become of the 2020 season – if any games are gong to be played and under what circumstances – most sports writers are digging deeply to keep readers engaged (and no doubt keep their jobs in the process).
One sports writer, one of my favorites, Joe Posnanski, has been on a year long project of writing a column on each of the Top 100 Players in Baseball (The Baseball 100: A Project Celebrating the Greatest Players in History). Initially, Posnanski had planned to get to the number one player on the 2020 Opening Day. But he slowed down his columns and only recently published the last two, identifying The Greatest of the Greatest (in my lingo).
As some of you probably know, Posnanski has been writing in the somewhat new The Athletic (subscription required, but worth it imho) which is now the on-line, go to home of some of sports best writers. Posnanski himself has won virtually every baseball writer’s award given, some multiple times, and has his own blog, JoeBlogs – Baseball and News and Life(again, subscription required, $30, also worth it).
Meanwhile, if you’re looking for a couple of worthwhile reads while awaiting baseball to resume, as well as in need of a break from the COVID-19 ‘news’, check out Posnanski’s final two columns on the two best players ever:
Justin Barrasso, a previous MillersTime baseball contest winner, models the ‘highly prized’ T-shirt awarded to all winners. This ‘invaluable’ T-shirt has been slightly updated.
Well now that the 2019 baseball season has come to a (wonderful) conclusion, it’s time to announce the various winners of the MillersTime Baseball Contests for this year.
Contest #1:
Name the two teams who will play in the 2019 World Series, which team will it all, and if a tie-breaker is necessary, what is the total number of games it will take to win it all this year?
The clear winner is Joe Higdon who predicted the Washington Nationals would defeat the Houston Astros.
The runner-up was Jeff Friedman, a past winner, who predicted the Astros would beat the Nats.
They both said the series would go six games. Fortunately, for all, it took seven, but the tie-breaker was not necessary as far as determining the winner of this contest..
Joe wins one ticket to the 2020 World Series, which hopefully will be in Boston or Washington. Or in both places!
Jeff (and guest) can join me in DC for a Nats’ game.
Contest #2:
Pick your favorite MLB team, and prove you’re not a ‘homer’ by predicting your team’s 2019 regular season record, whether they’ll make it to the playoffs, and if so, how far will they go. Also, what will be the determining factor in their season?
This contest was a much more difficult one to choose the winner.
Basically, Yankee fans were good on their team’s record, but not so good on how far they would go in the playoffs. (Fortunately, in my humble opinion, they lost 4-2 in the ALCS.)
Red Sox fans did even worse, overrating their record. Plus, the Sox didn’t even make it into the playoffs. (So sad.)
Orioles’ fans did well predicting their losing record, etc., but that wasn’t too difficult a call. And one Mets’ fan predicted their won-loss record exactly but erroneously said they’d make it into the playoffs.
Two Nats’ fans, Ronnie Davis & Joe Higdon, were close on the won-loss portion of this contest, and both had them winning the World Series.
Ben Senturia, a long suffering Cards’ fan, had St. Louis with the exact won-loss record (91-71) and predicted they’d lose in the NLCS (which they did to you know whom).
By the power granted to me by me, I’m declaring this contest a three-way tie.
Ben Senturia and Bronwen get to join me at Nats’ park for a Cards vs Nats game at a convenient time in the future. Alternatively, Ellen and I could make our way to St. Louis and spring for four tickets there.
Joe and Ronnie each get two seats to a Nats’ game in 2020, and I’ll likely join each of them for those games.
Contest #3:
Choose which League will win the All Star game in 2019, and name one AL and one NL team who will be leading their Division on July 9. Tie-breakers: Name the first MLB player to hit 25 HRs and the first MLB pitcher to win 12 games.
This contest winner was announced on MillersTime previously, but I repeat those results here for full disclosure.
A dozen of you got the right answer to Part 1 (American League) along with an AL & NL team leading in their Division:
Ed Scholl, Andrew & Noah Cate, Todd Endo, Jeff Friedman, Matt Wax-Krell, Brandt & Samantha Tilis, Chris Eacho, Justin Barrasso, Maury Maniff, Jesse Maniff, Jon Frank, Tim Malieckal.
The Tie-Breaker separated the pack. Many of you seemed to choose individuals who were particularly good last year.
No one got both the first to hit 25 home runs (Christian Yellich) and the first to 12 wins (Lance Lynn).
But one of you did identify Yellich who just barely beat out Alonso and Bellinger:
So Tim Malieckal wins.
Tim and a friend can join me for a Nats’ game of his choice next year. If he can’t make it to DC, maybe I can make it to see a Mets’ game, and we’ll go together at my expense.
Contest #4.
True or False:
A. The New York Yankees WILL win the AL East in 2019.TRUE.
B. The Washington Nationals WILL win the NL East in 2019. False.
C. There will be at least one 20 game winning pitcher in each League in 2019. False. (None in NL).
D. No pitcher in MLB will have two complete shutout games (from Ben Senturia).False. (Three did – Giolito, Alcantara, & Bieber).
E. At least two teams in 2019 will loose 100 games or more. True. (Four had the dishonor of so doing – O’s, Royals, Tigers, Marlins).
F. A manager will be fired by the All Star game (from Brent Schultz). False.
G. In 2019 the two AL and the two NL Wild Card teams will each come from the same Division in their League.False. (All four were from different Divisions.)
H. Either Manny Machado or Bryce Harper will fail to live up to expectations in 2019. Specifically, one of the two will not perform well, will not have a particularly good year as defined by factors such as BA, HRs, RBIs, OPS, Fielding Average, etc. True. (While Harper didn’t live up to the expectations of the Phillies’ fans, he did perform about as well as he had the past couple of years with the Nats. But Machado more clearly makes this question True as in almost all categories he performed less well than he did in 2018.)
I. At least three teams will win 100 games or more in 2019. True. (Four did: Astros – 107, Dodgers – 106, Yankees – 103, Twins – 101).
J. One of Grand Papa’s (c’est moi) grandchildren will witness in person (at an MLB game at least one of the following: a grand slam, a triple play, a no hitter, Teddy winning the President’s race at the Nats’ stadium, will go home with a foul ball, will have his/her picture taken with an MLB team mascot or will be on the TV screen at an MLB stadium.Very True. (Between the three grandchildren living in the DC area, at least one saw a grand slam, one saw Teddy winning a President’s race, one went home with a foul ball, one had his picture taken with the Nats’ mascot, and one was on the big TV screen at Nats’ stadium.)
Three winners. Matt Galati, Jerome Greene, and Jess Maniff each got nine of the ten True/False questions correct.
Monica McHugh and Tim Malieckal had eight correct and are entitled to a MillersTime Winner Baseball Contest T-Shirt. (Monica, please send me shirt size and address. Tim has several T-shirts already. Do you want a Nats’ WS T instead?)
Contest #5:
For all five questions, choose the MLB team who in the 2019 season will:
Have the most wins (Astros – 107)
Have the worst BA (Blue Jays – .236)
Have the most errors (Mariners – 132/ .978 FA)
Have the highest pitching save percentage (Blue Jays – 76.7%)
Have the lowest WHIP (Dodgers – 1.10)
These questions, all suggested by MillersTime contestants (and clearly baseball nerds/obsessives, positive virtues imho) proved to be the most difficult as judged by how many of the five questions were predicted correctly.
“It’s the time you spend for your rose that makes the rose so important.”
I awoke two days ago to the brief email below following the third World Series loss in a row by the Washington National’s to the Houston Astros in DC:
“I think I was happier when I didn’t care. It’s terrible to want something you have no control over. How about that, Dr. Miller!” – FH
The author is a long time friend who use to look askance at my interest in baseball. After listening to her for years, I invited her to attend Nats’ game with Ellen and me (she had never been to a MLB game in her seven plus decades!). Under my ‘light tutoring,’ and despite her skepticism, she found herself intrigued and interested, and surprisingly, to her and to me, she began to follow the Nats. Sometimes, intensely, it seems.
And that, FH’s quote, contains two of the many life’s lessons that baseball teaches.
First, some comments about last night. When facing elimination from the World Series, the Nats found a way to win game six (it often seems game six is a big deal (Buckner, etc.).
So now we go to the one game World Series, in Houston, that will determine who takes over from the Boston Red Sox as the new World Champions. (Yes. as of this writing, the Sox are still the World Champions!)
But it doesn’t matter who wins tonight.
Well, I guess it matters to the players for the two teams and for their fans and their two cities, including my 10 year old grandson who went to the fifth (disastrous) game with Ellen and me and stayed up until midnight – on a school night! – only to see his favorite team lose. (I did tell him after the final out to remember, “It’s not over yet.” But in my mind and soul, I felt the Astros would probably win the WS. After all, I was ‘schooled’ by my seven decades of following the Sox.)
But if the Nats lose tonight, at least there’s some solace. They didn’t give up. Even when they were behind and when that horrific umpire call seemed to change the direction of the Nats’ comeback chances. As they’ve done for much of the season, they found a way to win.
In fact, for all those of you who were sure the Nats didn’t deserve to be in the World Series, perhaps some rethinking is in order. After all, they had the best record in ALL OF BASEBALL since their horrendous 19-31 start to this season in May and that includes being better than the Yankees, the Dodgers, the Astros, etc. Plus, they did win the Wild Card suicide game and went on to defeat the Dodgers and the Cards, coming from behind in almost all of the games they won.
So if they lose do lose tonight in what hopefully will be a memorable game with Scherzer against Greinke in this winner take all game, the solace for Nats’ fans will be enough to take them into 2020.
Now, back to FH’s wise words and my dilemma with my grandson.
First, baseball’s life lessons, starting with the importance of caring and the wanting of something so badly yet you have no control over the outcome, two realities that baseball has taught me, and also my younger daughter. (If you’ve never read what she wrote when the Sox won the World Series in 2004 for the first time in 86 years and in my lifetime, read The Email on the Kitchen Table, written for / to me by my then 21 year old, daughter which said, in part:
“Being a Sox fan prepared me for disappointment; it taught me that there are some things that no matter how badly you want something, sometimes you just can’t make it happen. I think my perspective on life has truly been shaped by the virtue of my fanaticism for baseball. It’s taught me that life isn’t fair, you don’t get what you want, and other people can just be downright heartless.”
And,
“More than anything, my father taught me to believe. And not just in the Red Sox, but in myself. Because if my team can come back from down 0-3 to the Yankees, and sweep the Cardinals in the World Series, really, there is no such thing as never. “
And concluding:
“I guess in the end, my obsession ultimately taught me that good things do come to those who wait. So I sit back and say to the rest of Major League Baseball, sit down; wait ‘till next year.”
And, finally, my dilemma.
Is it better for my grandson for the Nats to lose tonight so he learns these two lessons than to experience the joy he would have if they win it all? After all, he’s only 10.
I’m not sure I know the answer.
But I know I have no control over what will happen.
Can’t we just be friends? Gleyber Torres (Yankees) and Mookie Betts (Red Sox), ASG, July 9. Photo Credit: Ron Schwane
No doubt you’ve been anxiously awaiting the announcement of the first winner of the 2019 MillersTime Baseball Contests.
Contest # 3:
1. Name which League will win the All Star Game. 2. Name one AL team and one NL team who will be leading their Division July 9.
2. Tie-Breaker: Name the first MLB player to hit 25 HRS and the first MLB player to win 12 games.
A dozen of you got the right answer to Part 1 (American League) along with an AL & NL team leading in their Division:
Ed Scholl, Andrew & Noah Cate, Todd Endo, Jeff Friedman, Matt Wax-Krell, Brandt & Samantha Tilis, Chris Eacho, Justin Barasso, Maury Maniff, Jesse Maniff, Jon Frank, Tim Malieckal.
The Tie-Breaker separated the pack. Many of you seemed to choose individuals who were particularly good last year.
No one got both the first to hit 25 home runs (Christian Yellich) and the first to 12 wins (Lance Lynn).
But one of you did identify Yellich who just barely beat out Alonso and Bellinger:
So Tim Malieckal wins.
Prize: Bring a friend and join me for a Nats’ game in the second half of the 2019 season or a Nats’ game of your choice next year (except for Opening Day). If you can’t make it to DC, maybe I can make it to where you live, and we’ll see a game together there.
Notes: There were a few choices and comments that ‘deserve’ notice:
Jeff Friedman wrote, “Anyone who picks the AL this year is nuts.”
David Price (not the player but an unapologetic Yunkee fan) said the Sox and the Nats would be leading their Divisions at the All Star break. Neither were close.
Elizabeth Tilis:Yes. My own progeny, for whom I had high hopes at one point, picked the NL to win the ASG.
Ed Scholl is the Runner Up for Contest #3 as he submitted his correct winning League and Division leaders first, Feb. 21, almost a month before anyone else. He gets one of the ‘highly prized’ MillersTime T-shirts when he sends me his size.
Results from the other three contests must await the end of the season, but for those of you keeping track, one of grand Papa’s grandchildren (Ryan) has already seen a grand slam and Teddy winning the President’s race
I head off later today to Boston with my nine year old grandson Eli for a trip to Fenway Park, planned months and months ago, to see the final three games of what has turned out for me to be a wonderful 2018 baseball season. (If you haven’t seen my earlier post about our first trip to this Red Sox temple, check out A Seven Year Old’s First Trip to Fenway.)
All three of these games will be against the Yankees, but these three games will have no major bearing on the playoffs. Rather, for me they will be a celebration of what has been the best regular season record in the 118 year history of the team. Their record, prior to these last three games, is 107-52, two wins better than their previous franchise record.
I could write pages on why this year has been so successful (see my earlier post, Success Has Many Fathers… for at least some the reasons I believe my heroes have done so well). And I could also list dozens of reasons why it has been the single best season in at least the 68 years since my grandfather first took me to Fenway when I was seven.
Yes. They won the World Series in 2004 after almost a century of not doing so. And then they won the WS twice more within the succeeding ten year period. The 2004 win was certainly the highlight of my (baseball) life as a long suffering Sox fan.
But, in some ways, this year has been at least as wonderful. Ever since Spring Training when the Sox went 22-9 (.710), they have played at a pace between .675 and .700+. Do you know what that means to a baseball fan, especially to a Red Sox fan?
It has meant that almost seven out of every ten games the Sox have played, they’ve won – sometimes on hitting, sometimes on starting pitching, some on relief pitching, some times on fielding, sometimes on base running, and often even when they were down as many as six or seven runs. They never lost more than three games in a row the entire season.
For me, that meant that I could go to sleep most nights ‘celebrating’ a victory. Also, it meant my wife Ellen did not have to sleep beside a disgruntled bed partner. And that went on for SIX months, half a year. Simply unheard of for this obsessive baseball fan.
Now, I’ve been reading and hearing for months that the season doesn’t matter if the Sox don’t at least make it into the World Series…and for some, they have to win the WS to make 2018 truly a special year.
Not so for me.
Of course I want them to win it all, and I’ll not be a happy camper if they don’t go far into the playoffs.
But nothing can take away how wonderful this season has been. How delightful it has been to see this group of 25+ players, along with their coaches, their staff, their ownership do what no other Red Sox team has ever done, and to see the joy on their faces seven out of every ten games.
Isn’t there some over used meme about getting there being half the fun?
In fact, I think one of my daughters wrote her college essay on the Ursula La Guin quote, “It’s good to have an end to journey toward, but it is the journey that matters in the end.”
For me, this year’s Red Sox journey has been what matters.
Email me: Samesty84@gmail.com if you’re interested or call me at 202-320-9501.
Here are a few games where there’s availability to join me, take a kid (always for free), or to go with others:
Tuesday, July 31, 7:05 vs Mets: Three tickets in Section 127 (between catcher and first base, 20 rows off the field). Lots of possibilities: Join me, bring a friend and join me, take all three tickets. No cost and if you are first to agree to bring someone of a younger generation (i.e., a kid), you get preference.
Wednesday, August 1, 12:05 vs Mets: One ticket (free) to join me for this afternoon game, in Section 117, four rows behind the Visitors’ Dugout.
Wednesday, August 1, 12:05 vs Mets: Three tickets in Section 127 (see above). Free if you take at least one kid.
Wednesday, August 8, 7:05 vs Braves: One ticket free in Section 127.
Thursday, August 9, 1:05 vs Braves: Three available in Section 127. Make an offer.
Saturday August 18, 7:05 vs Miami: One or three available in Section 127.
Tuesday, August 21, 7:05 vs Phillies: Three available in Section 127. Make an offer, or take two, and I can join you.
Wednesday, August 22, 7:05 vs Phillies: Three available in Section 127. Make an offer, or take two, and I can join you.
Friday, August 31, 7:05 vs Brewers: Three available in Section 127. Three available. Or take two, and I can join you.
** ** ** ** ** ** ** **
Also, in case you missed it, there is a winner and runners-up in the MillersTime 2018 Baseball Contest #2 (Question: Which league will the All-Star Game? Tie-Breakers: Name the first MLB player to hit 30 HRs and the first MLB pitcher to win 12 games.) Check out to see if you or someone you know, won: And the First Winner Is…
PS – Winner & Runners-Up need to send me their T-Shirt size.
I woke to several headlines and numerous articles touting last night’s 10-inning All Star Game as a “Classic,” a “Full-powered Classic”.
That was not the 3:45 minute game (4:45 with all the introductions) that three of us watched at Nats’ Park and that the American League won 8-6 in the 10th inning.
As we left the stadium at the end of the game, I asked my friend Todd what he would lead with if he was writing the next morning’s story about the game. He said he’d probably write that if you want the All Star Game to be truly competitive, it has to mean something (it no longer determines home field advantage for the World Series).
My wife Ellen, who now attends 5-10 games a year, said “there didn’t seem to be much energy out there, neither the players nor the fans were particularly into the game after the first few innings.”
It did start with energy, both in the stands (sellout crowd of 43,843) and on the field. The Nats’ ace Max Scherzer opened the game by striking out the American League’s leading hitter, Boston’s Mookie Betts. The crowd roared. He struck out the second batter also, the American League’s 2017 MVP, Houston’s Jose Altuve, on three pitches. Scherzer and Los Angeles’ Mike Trout, perhaps MLB’s premier player, battled. The fans wanted a third strike out, but Trout took the count to 3-2, fouled off a few pitches, and earned a walk. The fans sat down, disappointed and quieted further when Boston and MLB’s home run leader, Boston’s J.D. Martinez singled. But Schezer got Jose Ramirez to pop out and got out of the inning. The crowd settled in.
In the bottom half of the first, Boston’s ace Chris Sale gave up a first pitch single to Javier Baez, but then got the next three batters out, two on fly balls and one on a strike out. Sale threw at least one pitch over 100 mph and several at 99 and 98, something he has not done over the last eight years.
Scherzer came back out and immediately the Yankee’s Aaron Judge hit a home run. American League up 1-0. The stadium seemed stunned. So did Scherzer who then got all of the next three batters out quickly, including two by strike outs.
After Matt Kemp started the National League off with a double in the bottom of the second against New York’s best pitcher, Luis Severino, Bryce Harper, winner (and hero to the Nats’ fans) of the Home Run Derby the previous night, had a chance to tie the game or even put the National League ahead. He struck out (he did that again in his second at bat too), and the next two batters were quickly retired. All quiet on South Capitol Street.
Each team scored a run on bases empty home runs in the third, Mike Trout for the American League and then Wilson Contreras for the National League.
And for almost the next two hours, the score remained at 2-1, the American League leading. The fans began to leave when most of the starters and best players on both teams were replaced by less well known names, and neither team seemed to have much spirit. There was a spark of life when the National League tied the game on a home run by Trevor Story in the bottom of the 7th, but then rained threatened.
The fans should probably have stayed, as it turned out, because 11 of the 14 runs were scored (all on home runs but one) after the seventh.
But for some reason both managers seemed to stop managing, or at least seemed to stop trying to win. The best of the relievers remained in the bullpens, even when a barrage of hits and home runs were given up, and the game was still on the line. Then Seattle’s Jean Segura hit a three run homer in the 8th off the NL’s Josh Hader, and there were to be seven more runs scored before the American League was able to win on homers in the 10th. By that time, the stadium was more than half empty and even some of the starting players had left their dugouts.
Maybe Todd is correct. Maybe there needs to be some incentive beyond just being an exhibition game for the best known players. Maybe the Washington fans are more sedate than in other cities. (We were in Minneapolis for the ALG a few years ago, and Ellen remarked that that game was much more lively).
But a “thriller” or “monumental” this game was not. Or at least it did not seem to be so to us nor to many of the 43,843 fans who were no where to be seen well before the game ended.
I am curious what others who watched the game on TV saw and thought.
Here are some available games, dates, and costs for tickets I have for Nats’ games over the next month or so. Some will cost you. Some are free. Some I could join you. Some not.
Wed., May 16, 7:05 vs Yankees – Two seats in Section 114, Row T, Seats 15 & 16. $88 each.
Fri., May 18, 7:05 vs Dodgers – Two seats in Section 115, Row V, Seats 15 & 16. $80 each.
Sat., May 19, 7:05 vs Dodgers. One seat to join me and Ellen. Section 127, Row Z. Free.
Mon., May 21, 7:05 vs San Diego. – Two seats in Section 127, Row Z, Seats 2 & 3 to join me. Free, but you might have to buy me something to eat or drink.
Wed., May 23, 4:05 vs San Diego. One seat, Section 127, Row Z, Seat #3. Free.
Wed., June 6, 1:05 vs Rays. One seat, Section 127, Row Z, Seat #3. Free.
Sat., June 9, 12:05 vs Giants. One Seat, Section 127, Row Z, Seat # 3. Free.
Finally, and happily for some of us, we’re about 10% into the 2018 baseball season, and there are some early indications of what is ahead of us.
First, however, a look at what MillersTime readers, as gleaned from their entries into the annual contest, have predicted for the season:
1. It will be a Dodgers vs Yankees World Series and a toss up as to which team will win it all.
2. The Astros and the Nats will get close but not go all the way.
3. The American League will again win the All Star game (‘”Duh,” as my daughter writes).
4. Giancarlo Stanton will beat Aaron Judge as the first to hit 30 HRs, and Clayton Kershaw will beat Corey Kluber and Max Scherzer to 12 wins.
5. Nats fans think they’ll win 96 games but most don’t believe they’ll get to or win the WS.
6. Sox fans (ever the pessimists) predict 93 wins but little chance of making it into or winning the WS.
7. Yankee fans think their heroes will win 96 and have a good shot at winning it all.
8. Dodger fans say 98.6 wins and have a 33% chance of winning the WS.
9. Pitching seems to be what most of you believe will be the determining factor in how your team fares.
10. Most of you think there will be at least one 20 game winner but no (starting) pitchers with an ERA under 2.0.
11. Most don’t believe Stanton and Judge will hit as many HRs as last year (111) and certainly not 115.
12. Those who believe there will be at least three teams with 100 wins or more slightly out number the doubters.
13. And almost everyone believes that one of my grand kids will witness in person an MLB grand slam, a triple play, a no hitter, an extra inning game, or Teddy winning the President’s race. If one of little tykes had been with me the other night, they would have seen two of those events.
As to how much we can know from the first 10% of the season, it does look as if the Nats are not the shoe-ins many predicted, and the Dodgers are off to a bad start, tho they seem to be trying to overcome that. The Yankees are struggling a bit, and unless their pitching improves, they may not even make it into post season.
On the other hand, the Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, and Angels are doing better than predicted, as are the Mets and the Phillies (watch out Nats).
And then there are my heroes, the Sox. As a true Boston fan, I swing back and forth between believing/fearing what’s happening (16-2) is not going to last and hoping that everyone stays healthy and they continue to pitch, hit, and field at the rate they are now doing.
Finally, one big concern: the attendance at MLB is down markedly (see this article). It’s not clear if that is weather related (probably not) or some other factors are at play. So, go to a game. Take a kid. Or a friend or two.
Baseball creates an endless evolutionary cycle where hitters and pitchers battle to find an edge and maintain it. The periods where one side or the other seizes control have often been measured more in decades than years. Earlier this decade, pitchers gained the upper hand and they did so — at least in part — by throwing baseballs really, really fast. The pendulum has now swung back toward the hitters in the past couple seasons, and only time will tell whether that was the result of the ball itself or some other factor. Regardless of how this unfolds, one thing is clear: Those really, really fast pitches are no longer making hitters look silly.
While more pitches than ever have been coming in at 95-plus mph,1 today’s hitters have seemingly adapted, gaining the supernatural ability to hit these pitches. Last year, according to ESPN Stats & Information Group, hitters faced 110,529 fastballs traveling 95 mph or faster. That’s an increase of 124 percent from 2011, when hitters saw the fewest such fastballs in the period (starting in 2009) for which this data is tracked, and a spike of 32.6 percent from 2016. But the returns are diminishing as blazing-fast heaters become the norm. In 2017, 28,749 plate appearances were decided2 on a 95-plus mph fastball, and batters’ on-base plus slugging percentage against them was .734. That’s 80 points higher than in 2014, when OPS against these pitches hit a low of .654, and the high mark for the period in which the velocity data is tracked. Hitters produced home runs on 2.8 percent of plate appearances decided by 95-plus mph pitches in 2017, also the highest since 2009, and an increase of 75 percent from a low of 1.6 percent in 2014. Weighted on-base average, which more precisely assesses the value of every plate appearance, also spiked against 95-plus gas last season, and players were less likely to make the kind of soft contact that can lead to easy putouts.
(Ed.Note #1: To see 538’s chart of how MLB hitters have fared against fastballs of 95-plus mph, by on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS), 2009-2017, go to this site.)
This is a one-sided development. Think of these hitters like the cheetah evolving enough speed to catch a gazelle: This advantage doesn’t mean they can’t also catch slower prey, and MLB hitters are feasting on slower fastballs, too. In 2017, batters across the league were almost as good at hitting fastballs that came in at 95 mph or above — .734 OPS — as they had been in 2014 at hitting midrange fastballs — .754 OPS on fastballs between 92 and 94 mph. And on fastballs under 92, big league hitters sported a .906 OPS last year. In other words, hitters have gotten better at handling all species of fastball.
Of course, some are better at it than others. Over the previous two seasons, the king of smacking fast fastballs, according to wOBA, was J.D. Martinez, now of the Red Sox. In 128 plate appearances decided by fastballs at 95-plus mph, Martinez hit .360 with a wOBA of .542 (far above the league average of .327) and a 1.314 OPS that includes an .830 slugging average, courtesy of a Ruthian 10.9 percent homer rate.3 (For reference, among active players who had at least 100 plate appearances decided by fastballs of 95-plus mph, Brandon Moss was second in the league in home run rate on these pitches over the last two seasons, and he was more than two points behind Martinez at 8.7 percent.) The Cubs’ Anthony Rizzo isn’t far behind Martinez in wOBA (.457) among active players, and he posted a 1.059 OPS in plate appearances decided by high-octane pitches. And while pitchers understandably try to muscle up to retire Joey Votto, one of game’s greatest hitters, the Reds’ future Hall of Famer is undeterred — he managed a higher on-base percentage (.479) and a nearly identical slugging average (.563) in 217 plate appearances against pitches at 95 mph and above as he had against all pitches in those two seasons (.444 OBP, .564 slugging).
Pitchers do find that pure velocity can still put some hitters away, of course. Fans wondered why the Rays gave up on Corey Dickerson this spring, but in 2016 and ’17, the current Pirate had one of the biggest drops in production4 (his OPS fell by 475 points) against high-octane heat compared to fastballs thrown at 94 and below. Trevor Story of the Rockies struggled after a record-setting debut in 2016, and it seems like teams have figured out that the hard stuff can get him out, as his OPS drops by 441 points against 95-plus mph fastballs compared to slower heaters. And there’s Chris Carter, who had 113 plate appearances decided by 95-plus mph fastballs in the previous two seasons, and who posted an OPS that was 609 points worse against the fastest fastballs (1.053 against fastballs up to 94 mph compared to .444 against fastballs at 95-plus mph). That helps explain why the player who hit 41 home runs for the Brewers in 2016 is currently a proud member of Salt Lake Bees.
Michael Salfino is a freelance writer in New Jersey. His work can be found on Yahoo and the Wall Street Journal. @MichaelSalfino
(Ed. Note #2 – If you haven’t seen 538’s on going predictions, updated after all games have been completed for that day, Check out their latest MLB predictions.)
