Are the Sox Setting Us Up for August?

30 Tuesday Apr 2013

Tags

Boston Red Sox, Magic Number, Washington Nationals

If you’ve been a Red Sox fan as long as I have, 62 years, you no doubt understand the headline above.

At dinner last night, my wife of almost 45 years (and a ‘fair weather’ baseball fan — she only goes to games when the weather is fair) asked how the Sox were doing. When I told her they were 18-7, leading not only the AL East but also all of the majors, she said, “I guess they’re setting you up for their August fade.”

Could be.

If they continued at their present W-L rate (.720), they’d win 116 games.

Won’t happen, of course. Tho if they simply played at a .500 rate for the remainder of the season, they’d end up winning between 86-87 games, almost exactly what I predicted on March 18, 2013: Don’t Bother Reading This Post.

Still, Continue reading »

Sox Atop AL East. Magic Number Down to 162.

02 Tuesday Apr 2013

Posted by Richard in Go Sox

≈ 3 Comments

Tags

baseball, Magic Number, Nats, Sox, Yunkees

Yes.

162 is correct and not a misprint.

According to a young friend who studies these things (who ever knew there were such people?), apparently even though the Sox play 162 regular season games, they start the year with a magic number of 163.

Something about a need to put a cookie jar out of reach.

Once I return from this week’s trip to New Orleans, I’ll explain all of that in a future post for the few of you out there who may be interested in the metrics of such ‘foolishness’.

And the White Sox, Detroit, Houston, LAA, Seattle, Atlanta, Mets, Nats, Dodgers, Arizona, Cubs, Brewers also have magic numbers of 162, if I fully understand what this sabermatrician is trying to teach me.

Also, thanx to all of you who succumbed to my constant nagging (redundancy?) to participate in the 2013 MillersTime Baseball Contests.

I haven’t had time to put all the answers on a spread sheet yet; that will have to wait a week or so. But suffice it to say that not many of you picked either the Sox or the Yunkees to go all the way. In fact, many of you seem to believe neither will make it to the playoffs, but they will fight each other — for last place in the AL East.

Harrumph.

Better predictions for the Nats, however.

Cheers.

Nats: Magic Number: 4. Games Remaining: 7

27 Thursday Sep 2012

Posted by Richard in Go Sox

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Tags

Magic Number, Playoff Picture, Thomas Boswell, Washington Nationals

If you live in Washington, you know that there is a drama playing out over the Nats’ playoff picture. Even though they will be in the playoffs, it is not sufficient to get there as a Wild Card team as that would mean they’d be in a one game playoff.

So for the young Turks, along with a few older hands, the Magic Number is Four. That, of course, means that any combination of Nats’ wins and/or Braves losses that add up to four in 14 games the two teams have remaining means they will be a full playoff team. And also important, they want to be the top seed in the NL playoff picture to gain home field advantages.

So why are lots of folks in Washington nervous? How hard should it be to get four of 14? The Braves are four games out of first place.

Well, the Nats’ aren’t doing quite so well in this last, meaningful stretch. They are 5-5 in their last 10 games. The Braves are 8-2 over that same stretch and have won (their last) four games in a row.

Looking a little closer at the remaining games, the Nats play four games against the Phillies (including the final three games of the season). Those Phillies are no longer the whimpy team they were for much of the season. And the other three games the Nats have remaining are against the Cards, who are on an 8-2 streak and are also playing for a playoff spot.

The Braves last seven games are all against teams with records under .500. They have one game with the Marlins (2-8 in their last 10 games), three with the Mets (5-5) and three with the Pirates (3-7).

So the Nats have a harder schedule. Their present four game lead, however, is a big advantage.

Still, it is the final week of a very long season, they are without Strasburg, and even though their winning record is .606 (the only team with a record over .600), they have not yet been able to win their Division. Times are tense in this Capital City.

My sports’ writing guru Thomas Boswell has another good column this morning in the Washington Post in which he says the Final Week Isn’t for the Weak of Heart. See what he has to say.