If the Nats win it all, the Millers stand to win $1,040.

The proof?

As you can see from the two pictures above, on Jan. 6, 2012, when no one was predicting the Washington Nationals would make the playoffs, yours truly was in Las Vegas with younger daughter Elizabeth. As any good father would do, I purchased some Pennant and World Series bets.

Actually, I purchased four tickets, two for Elizabeth and two for myself.

So, if the Nats win the NL Pennant, both Elizabeth and myself will each collect $160.

Then, tho unlikely, if the Nats win the World Series, we each stand to win an additional $360.

Total between us would be $1,040, $520 each.

If you subtract the cost of the tickets, that’s a ‘profit’ of $1,000.

Additionally, I bought a World Series tickets for both my Atlanta nephews, and they stand to win $200 each should the Braves make it from the Wild Card spot all the way to winning the WS.

Then, I threw in another $10 to buy my so-called Baltimore O’s friend a WS bet/ticket. I don’t know how much he stands to win if they go from their Wild Card spot all the way to win the WS. But it probably doesn’t matter. It seems NR (true initials) can’t find his ticket. Typical O’s fan, I guess.

(**Full Disclosure**: Because I am a loyal Red Sox fan, I also made bets for then AL favorites, two for the Sox winning the AL Pennant and two for them winning the WS. That was $40 down the drain.)

Anyway, my total outlay?

$110.

Any questions?

unknown

said:it seems like NR had legitimate reasons NOT to be excited about this about the beginning of the season..

unknown

said:and he was so NICE to buy you a WINNING ticket @ preakness!

Richard

said:I heard him talk about a Preakness ticket, but, typically, I never received it.

Brian "Stabach" Steinbach

said:“Then, tho unlikely, if the Nats win the World Series…..”??????

No more unlikely than the Red Sox winning a World Series in 2004. And as a wild card, no less.

Need I point out that prior to ’04, Washington had a more recent WS title than the Red Sox? And our WS drought is now just two years longer (if my math is right) than the Red Sox faced in ’04?

O ye of little faith.

unknown

said:OUCH!! the drought comment hurt..O’s last won it last 1983..i think?

Edan

said:Somehow I see you parlaying this win into another trip to Vegas, I mean, how else will you collect your winnings.

Richard

said:It is a wise son-in-law who knows his father-in-law.

jere

said:Let’s talk serious now. The big question is, will you “hedge your bet”? In other words, when you have a future bet like this, once your team makes it to the series where they can win your bet for you, you can place a smaller wager on the other team, basically up to half the amount you stand to win (assuming you still want to root for the team you originally bet on). That way, should your team lose that series, you still win positive money. Of course it means winning less if your team wins (since you put in more $ on the other team), but, that’s the decision: Go for it all, with no net, or take a little less knowing if you lose you still actually win a smaller amount?

I don’t think it really applies to ALCS here, since you’re only making $160 and you spent $110. But for WS, now you’re talking being up $50 and standing to gain $360 more. At that point what I would do it make maybe a 50-100 dollar bet on the AL side. If the Nats win, you get 360 on top of the 50 you were already up. Subtract what you spent hedging for the AL side, let’s say 100, and you end your season up $310. Net. If the AL wins, assuming the odds are somewhere near even, you get the 100 you bet back plus 100 for winning, leaving you at a season-ending total of $150 (since you were already up 50).

Meaning your ultimate choice would be to win

A. don’t hedge and either win $410 or nothing

B. hedge and either win $310 or $100

(neither of these include the 50 you were already up)

Another thing to consider is, in this same situation, if the other team is a huge underdog, you can play it so that you’ll win the same high amount either way–that’s when it’s silly NOT to hedge. In football, (my dad does this all the time), say you bet LSU to win it all before the season. They go to the championship game and you stand to win $1000 if they win. If the other team is a 10-point underdog, you bet, say, $300 to win on them plus the points. LSU wins by 5, you win both bets! LSU wins by more than 10 or loses, you still win either the bigger amount or the smaller amount. The point is, when you make a future bet, and that team makes it to the point where they’re one game/series from winning, you ALWAYS win something, if you play it right.

Question is, do you have a way to make further legal sports bets without having to go back to Vegas….

(And one final note! Some feel betting on the other team means you’re somehow rooting less for your own team. I disagree. You’re just buying insurance and guaranteeing yourself a win. You still of course root for your own team, you just know you’ll get something if they lose.)

jere

said:PS My line “go for it all, with no net” means a (metaphorical) physical safety net, as in tightrope walking. The other time I said “net” I meant as opposed to gross.

Richard

said:Ah, Jere, I see your father has taught you well.

And what’s wrong with going back to Vegas?

Much thanx for the truly wise Comments.

unknown

said:Samesty really taught me a lesson here..I think Im going to gamble more..save less!!

jere

said:“And what’s wrong with going back to Vegas?”

Well, nothing, of course, except that it might cost you more than your entire winnings just for the plane ticket! But don’t worry, you’ve got more winning in store when you arrive…

Richard

said:I don’t really need an excuse to go to Vegas.

As long as my daughter goes too, I’m usually assured of the Millers leaving the sinful city with more than they came.

Jere

said:We still have to meet up in AC one of these days!

EllnMllr

said:Wondering why this is the most commented on blog post in months! Hilarious. You’re better off investing in something like shoes or purses!